Upfronts Preview: What You Need to Know

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The annual TV-business rite of spring known as the upfronts will soon be upon us. In a few days, we'll have roughly 30 new shows to make snap judgments about, schedule changes to ponder and DVR-recording strategies for the fall to map out.

Before the frenzy begins in New York, though, we thought we'd give you a few things to think about. Based on what we've seen and heard, and the realities of the season that's about to end, here are a few questions to keep in mind as the upfronts approach.

Will ABC break up its powerhouse Sunday lineup?
That seems like a distinct possibility, particularly given the fact that "Monday Night Football" is cable-bound and nothing the network has tried there since January has really caught fire. Unless you count the flameout of "Emily's Reasons Why Not."

"Grey's Anatomy" seems like the most likely candidate to make the move, and it would make sense to place the show at 9 p.m. Mondays, where it could lead into a new drama at 10. "Grey's" has shown this year that it wasn't dependent on a "Desperate Housewives" lead-in to draw strong ratings, especially since its post-Super Bowl broadcast. Which is not to say "Housewives" is now a weak sister -- it still draws better than 20 million viewers a week and could be a launching pad for another show come fall.

Can Aaron Sorkin and Paul Haggis save NBC?
Maybe, but probably not as much as John Madden can.

NBC has already picked up "The Black Donnellys" from Oscar-winning "Crash" writer-director Paul Haggis, and "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip," "West Wing" creator Sorkin's latest effort. The cachet of adding shows by A-list writers could help the struggling network regain some of its luster -- provided, of course, that their shows turn out well.

The biggest weapon NBC will unleash this fall, though, is the return of the NFL to its schedule after an eight-year absence. The network will broadcast Sunday-night games, with the old "MNF" team of Al Michaels and Madden in the booth. How big a difference could it make? Well, this season "Monday Night Football" drew 16.2 million viewers per week for ABC. NBC's Sunday lineup of "The West Wing," "Law & Order: Criminal Intent" and "Crossing Jordan" averaged only 9.9 million. ("Criminal Intent" and "Jordan" have been renewed for 2006-07 but may be held until midseason.)

Is the sitcom still dead?
Probably not, thanks to a mini-revival this year at the hands of "My Name Is Earl," "Everybody Hates Chris," "How I Met Your Mother" and "The Office." What does seem to be on the decline, though, is the old-style, three-cameras-and-a-couch type of show.

Following on the success of "Earl" and others, the networks ordered about two dozen single-camera comedy pilots this year, a huge increase over recent development seasons. And some of those that do use multiple cameras, like CBS' "The Class," will try to vary their approach to storytelling, which has helped "How I Met Your Mother" stand out.

ABC was the most aggressive in developing comedies this spring, ordering a whopping 17 pilots as it tries to bring some of the same buzz to its laffers as it has for its dramas.

Just what the heck is The CW's schedule going to look like?
A lot like a mash-up of the current WB and UPN lineups, if the pre-upfront scuttlebutt is to be believed.

The Hollywood trade papers are reporting that CW executives aren't too thrilled with their drama pilots. If that's true, then the door could be open a little for shows like "Everwood" and "One Tree Hill" that have passionate followings but are perceived as long shots to make the jump to the new network.

As it stands, UPN's "America's Next Top Model," "Everybody Hates Chris" and "Friday Night Smackdown!" look like locks, along with The WB's "Gilmore Girls," "Smallville," "Supernatural" and "Beauty and the Geek." "Veronica Mars," "Girlfriends" and possibly one other of UPN's comedies have pretty good chances. The CW may also get a CBS hand-me-down in the drama pilot "Ultra," about a young female superhero whose dating life is not up to par.

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To fully appreciate what's going to happen at next week's "upfronts" in New York -- where networks unveil their fall schedules to advertisers and the press -- you need to follow the emotional journey of three disparate but entwined groups.

The people who create shows. The people who run the networks. And the people who already have a show on the air. Starting Monday in Manhattan, they're going to play musical chairs.

And there are not nearly enough chairs.

You would think that network programmers might know exactly what they were going to do to the schedule when, say, it's their turn to walk up onstage and announce the schedule. Normally they do, but there's nothing normal about the TV business, and last-second shuffling is often part of the "plan."

That makes the people with new shows and old shows awfully frightened. And for good reason. For example, NBC is going to start things off on Monday. Now, when NBC was more of a powerhouse and less of a Palace of Mediocrity, other networks would sometimes rejigger their schedule a day later based upon where NBC moved shows. It's called counter-programming. And some people in the industry believe Xanax was created for that reason.

Normally, a weakened NBC would be in no shape to set in motion a chain of events that makes other networks panic and scramble. But when the Hollywood Reporter ran a story suggesting that NBC was going to move "ER" off of Thursday nights, the erasers came out. And here's why -- all the other networks planned for "ER" to be the 10 p.m. Thursday competition.

If it's gone, everything changes. More important, Thursday is the biggest money-making night on television. Advertising often runs then for movies opening the next day. If one network dominates Thursdays, it's a windfall of cash. The Hollywood Reporter suggested that Aaron Sorkin's new series, "Studio 60 on Sunset Strip," will get the "ER" slot.

"Studio 60" is probably the most anticipated pilot of the fall (which means nothing now, other than it's already picked up and the Champagne has been popped and drunk). How do you counter a buzz show created by a hit-maker? Who knows, but if you're another network, NBC has your attention.

Guess who else is interested in that news? Tina Fey, the head writer (and "Weekend Update" anchor) on "Saturday Night Live." Oh, and Lorne Michaels, creator of "SNL." Why? Because Sorkin's series spoofs a show very much like "Saturday Night Live." Which is one thing -- but Fey and Michaels happen to have an untitled project that also spoofs a show very much like "SNL." And that's quite another thing. Two parodies? Of essentially the same thing? On the same network? Oh, and Fey's show hasn't been picked up yet.
But it's not only the Big Four who are plotting last minute.

Trade magazine Broadcasting & Cable reported that the CW, which will replace the departing WB and UPN networks, had decided to eat about $20 million by canceling "Reba," a show the WB had already renewed before it imploded. Now, why would a new network (run by CBS Corp. and Warner Bros. television) in desperate need of making cash do such a thing, when everybody already had penciled in "Reba" on the new CW lineup? Because "Reba" is an older, unhip show, and the CW wants to sell ads to young, hip viewers. The people who buy those ads are in New York. At the upfronts.

Now, if you're the producers of "Reba," you're going to get paid anyway. But only once more and with no future. Even when you're safe, you're not safe.

It's a long journey to decision time for new series. Pilot season starts essentially at the end of May. Yes -- right after the upfronts. Nothing like planning ahead to have it all collapse a year later.

Scripts are written from the summer through the fall, turned into the networks by, say, November. If the script is well received, the network green-lights development (filming), and the pilot gets shot and tweaked until it's, ahem, perfect, by March or April. The networks take all the pilots, watch them, and make their decisions -- possibly in a Lincoln Town Car on the way to the upfronts.

People like Fey are not the only ones whose nerves are wrecked. Imagine the people behind CBS' lame sitcom "Out of Practice," or ABC's paranormal series "Invasion," or NBC's paranormal series "Surface." Or Fox's abnormally awful sitcom "The War at Home." All of these shows are "on the bubble." Meaning, they could live or die. And their creators honestly don't know which.

Newbie network the CW has created all kinds of panic. Who will make the cut in what essentially is a merger between UPN and WB -- with at least 10 hours of programming vanishing -- is speculation central. Is UPN's "Veronica Mars" alive? Paired with the WB's "Gilmore Girls"? Was the "Gilmore Girls" season and finale so awful it can't be fixed next season? What about UPN's African American programming -- are "Girlfriends" and "Everybody Hates Chris" compatible? Do they have to be?

Even the smallest maneuvers set in motion possible countermoves. For example, "Monday Night Football" is leaving ABC, freeing up space, but NBC got rights to NFL games for Sunday nights, which shakes things up on that network. There are rumors abounding about shifts on Sunday in response to football. Ah, but there's always a rumor.

And there is always, without fail, something that surprises. If you're making a new show or nurturing an existing show, surprises are bad. If you're a network making choices, well, you might find yourself surprised by another network when you least expect it. Like, say, less than 24 hours before you present your schedule. These simultaneous states of fear and anticipation are just part of what will make next week so interesting.

SOURCE: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/05/12/DDGDMIPLKN17.DTL

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DIGITAL Mania has descended.

Sure, there will be plenty of fussing over the return of Matthew Perry and other celebs to television this week, but many of the big splashes at the upfronts will be about techie stuff: digital strategies and new platforms — plans for launching new fall shows with accompanying original content on the Web, cellphones and iPods; streaming video of current episodes online; and new broadband entertainment channels.

It's much more in the wind now," said NBC Entertainment President Kevin Reilly. "Up until a year or so ago, it was maybe a peripheral conversation at best. It's now a regular part of our daily discussion. We call it '360 development.' Now, we are certainly talking right out of the gate, 'Here's a great show, we love it, what is its digital capability?' With some shows, it just kind of takes very naturally, and those are the ones you know you're going to have a winner."

At the network's presentation today, NBC Universal Television Group Chief Executive Jeff Zucker will announce NBC's digital strategy, including plans to hire separate writing staffs to launch original content on different platforms for new shows.

At the CBS presentation at Carnegie Hall on Wednesday, executives are expected to devote substantial time to innertube, the network's new broadband entertainment channel, said JoAnn Ross, president of network sales. "The clients out there looking for fast reach still believe in broadcast television, but they do want to have a toe in the water in this new space," Ross said. "Some of them want big ideas. Some of them want to do tests. Some want to do one [platform] versus another."

ABC, already a leader in original show-related content for the Web, will probably spotlight its current project to stream video of shows such as "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives" on its site the day after episodes air.

"In our experience, the best shows still drive the platform," said Albert Cheng, executive vice president of digital media for Disney-ABC Television Group. "People come to you because they know 'Desperate,' they know 'Lost.' That is the base that we build on and then expand."

At the end of this month, Fox will end its fourth consecutive season in first place among 18- to 34-year-old viewers, and the network plans to stress to advertisers its ability to reach that demographic not just on television but also online. For the first time at the upfronts, Ross Levinsohn, president of Fox Interactive Media, will be giving a presentation to emphasize the vast reach of the company's websites (Americanidol.com and MySpace.com) among young people.

"The reality of the business is that certainly the core demographic of 18- to 34-year-olds are multi-tasking all the time now," Levinsohn said. "They're experiencing media and not just on television. I think it's important for us as a company to be in all those places."

But network presidents agree that quality content yields multi-platform opportunities and not vice versa. They also know that even with the touting of loads of digital product, advertisers are sure to keep mainly to the traditional route.

"The traditional method of using a 30-second spot is very alive and well, and will continue to be for some time," said Shari Anne Brill, program director for the media-buying firm Carat USA. Advertisers will be looking for networks to detail the demographics they can reach through the digital media, Brill added.

"These platforms and technology are terrific, but they're additive and they're all small at this point," said Steve McPherson, ABC's president of prime-time entertainment. "We're going to see a lot of them fail and a lot of them work in certain ways but not necessarily the way everyone thinks they will. The bottom line is that content is still driving all these decisions."

Before advertisers are wooed by technology, they must first be fans of the programming, Brill agreed. "It doesn't matter if I can get NBC content in all these places," she said. "I need to first hear that the NBC content is going to be good."

SOURCE: LA Times